If you've been waiting for a significant pullback in the market to buy stocks, you have been waiting a long time. The market continues to defy gravity and that quick 1000 point drop we had at the end of September into the beginning of October seems to be long forgotten. Its amazing how stocks have kept going up since 2009, no matter how much uncertainty there was/is in the world.
For all those years, it has been quite easy to make money in stocks as so many of them have gone up. Tossing darts at a stock board really would have worked! But that can't last forever.
I think 18,000 on the Dow will happen, if not this year then real early next year. I just have the feeling we will get there. But after that, the hurdle over 18,000 might take a while to get over.
Take a look at the Dow chart below and see that every new 1,000 point hurdle is taking longer and longer to get over. 13,000 to 14,000 was real quick. 14,000 to 15,000 took a bit longer but still took very little time. 15,000 to 16,000 took more than double the time of the other two and 16,000 to 17,000 took even longer than that.
Depending how the elections go November on 4th, Dow 18,000 will probably come quicker if Republicans win both the Senate and House. That is because they are seen as being friendlier to business and lower taxes. But no matter who wins, I think Dow 18, 000 WILL happen within the next 4 months.
After that though, the euphoria may really wear off as investors decide to take gains and wait to see what the new year has planned. Nothing in world seems to be going to smoothly right now and fear about the economy (in many countries) as well as terrorism and wars may finally get the better of investors's unbridled optimism.
Disclaimer: Please remember, this is just my opinion and I hope I'm wrong and the markets continue to go up. But before you buy stocks or open any broker accounts, make sure you consult a financial planner or at least do your own homework so that you understand what you are doing.
