Is Dow 18,000 Just A Matter Of Time?

If you've been waiting for a significant pullback in the market to buy stocks, you have been waiting a long time. The market continues to defy gravity and that quick 1000 point drop we had at the end of September into the beginning of October seems to be long forgotten. Its amazing how stocks have kept going up since 2009, no matter how much uncertainty there was/is in the world.

For all those years, it has been quite easy to make money in stocks as so many of them have gone up. Tossing darts at a stock board really would have worked! But that can't last forever.

I think 18,000 on the Dow will happen, if not this year then real early next year. I just have the feeling we will get there. But after that, the hurdle over 18,000 might take a while to get over.

Take a look at the Dow chart below and see that every new 1,000 point hurdle is taking longer and longer to get over. 13,000 to 14,000 was real quick. 14,000 to 15,000 took a bit longer but still took very little time. 15,000 to 16,000 took more than double the time of the other two and 16,000 to 17,000 took even longer than that.

Depending how the elections go November on 4th, Dow 18,000 will probably come quicker if Republicans win both the Senate and House. That is because they are seen as being friendlier to business and lower taxes. But no matter who wins, I think Dow 18, 000 WILL happen within the next 4 months.

After that though, the euphoria may really wear off as investors decide to take gains and wait to see what the new year has planned. Nothing in world seems to be going to smoothly right now and fear about the economy (in many countries) as well as terrorism and wars may finally get the better of investors's unbridled optimism.

Disclaimer: Please remember, this is just my opinion and I hope I'm wrong and the markets continue to go up. But before you buy stocks or open any broker accounts, make sure you consult a financial planner or at least do your own homework so that you understand what you are doing.

THIS STOCK CHART SCARES ME

It's hard to look at the chart below and not gets scared. In fact, its hard not to log into my broker account and sell everything, or at least put a stop loss on each stock.

But the fact is that I could have made that same statement for the last one or two years, and been wrong every time. Look how much higher the stock market has gone since it passed its all time high which was close to the top of those first two mountains on the chart. 

There is no doubt that we are uncharted waters as the market has gone almost straight up since 2009. The difficult part for me has been putting money into stocks along the way as I keep looking at charts like this one and scaring myself into non-action. I keep waiting for a meaningful pullback and the most we can get is 3% to 5% which hardly counts. 

I feel like a dummy as I have had too much money on the sidelines, determined not to get hurt too badly if another crash comes along. And in my conservatism, I have cost myself so much money I don't want to think about it. The danger is that I, and other investors, will throw in the towel and start buying again as we try to play catch up. And THAT will be when the market crashes. 

This goes to show that I just can't time the market and when I try, I usually fail. I'm pretty sure you are no different. The best way to go about investing your money is to put it into stocks/the market on a consistent basis and for the long haul whenever possible. That way you buy in at the highs, lows, and in between.